At present, the residents here in Puerto Rico have been informed that the
tropical depression is now a hurricane. It appears that if it continues the
path as anticipated it could hit/landfall in Puerto Rico's east coast.
Presently, we are experiencing heavy rains although our local weather
service tells us these heavy rains are NOT directly related to the
hurricane.

Hi,

I've been asked to post messages here for the BVI
... prior to, during and after a hurricane which
appears (unfortunately) to be heading our way.

Of course, I'd be happy to help anyone I can, but
please realize that posting messages "during a
hurricane" is all but impossible since I lack a
generator and our power will most definately be
turned off prior to the event and may be off for a
day or two (and perhaps longer) afterwards.

This is a pretty strange storm and not something I
am familiar with as it is coming at us from what I
call "our back door". We are sort of used to
hurricanes approaching from the east and
travelling westwardly. This is a new and quite
different experience for me as I have only lived
here for a little more than 6 years and have never
experienced a hurricane coming from the west and
travelling eastward.

I have no idea what a hurricane might do under
these circumstances. I only know I don't like this
little change much!

The saving grace is that (so far) it seems to be
only a category one hurricane ... and the BVI has
sustained much worse since I have been living
here. We probably have the very best "disaster
preparedness" system in the Caribbean today. With
that in mind, I am sure that all will run
smoothly
after the storm and we will be back up and running
in short order ... as usual.

We will see what we will see I suppose.
Personally, I am voting for this one to curve
"WAY" north and bypass us altogether.

Unfortunately, my blasted knee is telling me that
this is not something we should ignore. At this
point its not just my knee (which I have come to
rely on) ... my left hip and all ten fingers are
giving me some trouble as well, so I'm not liking
this at all, at all!

If any of you have ever had carpul tunnel syndrome
or (really annoying) numbness accompanied by pain
in any of your limbs ... then you know what I am
talking about. Its like the "fat lip syndrome"
when you visit a dentist and you've had a shot to
freeze your mouth. Nothing works too well.
(I keep hitting the wrong keys on the computer
keyboard because my fingers are swelling up and
not bending all too well).

Anyway, I will do my best to stay in touch and
give updates as and when possible. Right now, it
is very calm, very quiet, no wind, no rain ... and
I can't see a star in the sky which indicates
there is a heavy cloud cover.

I am situated on the north west end of Tortola and
just up the hill from Capoons Bay (Bomba's Shack).
If anyone needs to find out about family and
friends after the storm, I will do what I can.

Kind regards,
Liane Le Tendre

My 2nd Lenny forecast: cat 4/5

POSTED today on alt.talk.weather, rec.travel.caribbean, soc.culture.jamaican:

In article ,
huritrack@aol.comaol (Mike) wrote:

> In article ,
> mike1@winternet.com wrote:
>
> > My forecast:
> >
> > Sunday: declared TS, strengthens slowly but steadily and increases in
> > geographical coverage. Heavy rains in Jamaica, and increasingly so in
> > eastern Honduras. Movement drifting to the east.
> >
> > Monday: strong TS by day, hurricane during overnight hours. Rains continue
> > in Jamaica. Movement stationary or drifting south.
> >
> > Tuesday: weak but strengthening hurricane. Movement stationary to the
> > south of Jamaica, with a possible inclination to begin moving west again.
> > Flooding in Jamaica.
> >
> > Wednesday: Provided the storm is still near (but not over) Jamaica, it
> > should be a Category-2 hurricane and strengthening rapidly....
>
> Jeepers...Mike! Talk about an agressive forecast!
>
> However...your intensity forecast is verifying...a bit faster though than you
> projected.


Actually, it's verifying a *lot* faster than I had projected.

Here's my re-adjustment, based on a hurricane *now*:

BTW: I see ZERO wind shear over this system for at least the next 24hr.


Monday: cat-2 hurricane strengthening rapidly throughout the day. Eastward
movement to the south of Jamaica. Flash-flooding on that island begins.

Tuesday: cat-4 hurricane strengthening throughout the day. Slow E or SE
movement trending to stationary or S drift. Lenny may move far enough away
from Jamaica to ease heavy rains, but hedge your bets.

Wednesday: Category-5. Movement WSW toward Nicaragua.


I don't buy, at all, the continuing-east-to-Peurto-Rico forecast
scenerio which the models and the NHC are currently going with. Looking at
the water vapor loops, I don't see westerly influences descending far
enough south to yank Lenny out of the Caribbean. This is the EXACT same
problem forecasters had with Mitch last year -- the storm eventually
followed surface flow to the southwest instead of lifting out; and if
you'll look north of Peurto Rico on visible satellite, you'll see a
gigantic mass of modifying continental-origin air beginning to turn
southwest as a strong trade wind. Look at those fair-weather cu zipping
down. The models carry Lenny straight into the teeth of that? Dream on.
Rather, the leading edge will drop into the Caribbean in the next 36
hours, and that will end Lenny's eastward jaunt.

The best hope for all concerned is that Lenny goes stationary for an
extended time period in the central Caribbean until it has churned up the
ocean under it. The storm would then weaken and be more susceptible to
shear and further weakening.

But as for right now, it's looking like another disaster either way.

(BTW, if Lenny hits Nicaragua, it will be exactly 11 years after Joan,
a late-season cat-4, hit the country during the last waxing solar maxima.)


snip
> What, by the way, is the record for the latest major hurricane in the N
> Atlantic Basin?



(November 15-23)

Latest cat-4:

(November 11-25)

Lastest cat-5s in Atlantic:

(October 27-November 1)
Mitch, last year, was a cat-5 a few days earlier.


I Lenny becomes a cat-4, which appears highly likely now IMO, it will be
the latest occurance of a storm to reach that strength.

We at the western end of the island of Jamaica have been geting a lot of rain, on and off. Not much wind but contineous showers. I think that the huricane will slowly drift away from the island.

FROM TORTOLA, TUesday Morning November 16th
Monday, November 15 was a holiday in the British Virgin Islands. Road Town
was very quiet with most businesses closed. Gone were most all the hurricane
shutters that until recently had graced the buildings, leftover reminders
from himmacane Jose, who was only a nasty storm. A cruise ship that had come
in that morning, left a few hours later, presumably to outrun the storm. I
stopped by the Cash & Carry to pick up a few supplies and ran into only a
handful of people there. One person, who has several businesses and
apartments, told me he had just taken down all his shutters last week and he
wasn't about to put them back up!
As usual, the island seems divided about taking Lenny seriously. At
Nanny Cay Marina, the place was full and abuzz with storm preparations.
Folks that had stayed aboard for the last storm, said they were NOT staying
aboard for this one. One sturdily built resort claims to have all their
rooms already sold out. I hope this is true, as in the past they were not
sold out but claimed to be because they didn't want the hassle of hurricane
refugees.
Let's face it, a hurricane is just a major inconvenience for everyone,
but preparation is the key to survival. The Office for Disaster Preparedness
contacted all the bareboat companies, asking them to call all their boats
back into safe harbors. I went to look at Paraquita Bay, a great hurricane
hole, and it already had a passel of vessels tucked in with a parade of
boats outside the narrow entrance patiently waiting their turn to get inside.
The airport looked deserted with only one private plane in evidence, the
rest having already flown south.
By mid-afternoon, an unusual humidity had settled over the area, giving
everyone a sweaty sheen, the calm before the storm. Friends from New York
had arrived a few days ago and happily launched their boat for the season
just 2 days past. They called the yard to try to rehaul but it was closed
due to the holiday with rumors that it may or may not open.
Monday night, a usually slow night for bars and restaurants, turned out
to be the start of the pre-hurricane parties with waterfront businesses
overflowing with folks out drinking and eating and making their own
predictions about our future. Heck, I went out to enjoy a sumptuous meal at
Jolly Roger with friends before we settle in to eat whatever starts going in
the fridge next, after the power is cut off. They appeared to be having a
record night and I think the rowdy crowd just about ate and drank them dry!

Well, dat be life in de islands mon. I got to do a million things to
finish preparing boat, body and soul for Lenny.

@aol.com">aSail4U@aol.com

don't forget to buy your copy of the soon-to-be-released book;
HURRICANES & HANGOVERS
(and other tall tales and loose lies from the coconut telegraph)
authored and autographed by Yours Truly

The conditions in Saint Thomas are very rainy- preparations are coming to completion as the governor has issued a 9pm curfew. The lastest reports place the hurricane on a straight path toward us- but we are still hoping for a change. I will continue to place messages as long as I can.

Since hurricane lenny has been on it's way to the virgin islands there are alot of false information being brodcasted on the airwaves, Old outdated reports are the order of the day, can't We be a little more responsible here? By the way the governor's handling of this matter is very confusin everything is left for last minute, The governor gets on the radio and tells us it's going to be a normal day, then all of a sudden he's got everyone on the roads heading back home. Anyway now you can add your 5 cents.

There is a now a 9 pm curfew scheduled for the Virgin Islands. There is
a price freeze in effect. The garbage bins on ••••. Croix will be remove
to cut down the spread of debris by the storm. Still no rain and a very
light wind. The ••••. Croix airport will close at 6 pm. The airport in
••••. Thomas will close at 9pm (they are expect a commercial flight). All
the ports in the V.I. were closed earlier today for ship in excess of
200 tons. Information is being given out as to the location of areas to
get sandbags. Thank goodness that the worst part of the Hurricane Lenny
is on the south side.
That's it for now.

Hello from Puerto Rico, San Juan

Kai Griebenow here. Local time 9:41 pm. Rain is setting
in. Pretty heavy and constant. Thus far we have not had
significant wind here.

My neighbors are doing last minute preparations.
However, everyone seems to be quite well prepared
allready. In San Juan, we expect to have mostly tropical
storm force winds - but who knows. Predictions with this
hurricane seem to be somewhat unreliable. Probably
significant lack of data for hurricanes moving w-->e in
November. I will try to stay online as long as the
electricity allows. (Impact expected early next
morning.)

One interesting notion: one of my dogs (Lola) got pretty
nervous earlier this day. She knows that something is
happening. Usually, when she goes under the bed, we will
get something. Let's see whether dogs are more reliable
than the weather forecast. I hope not....


Greetings,

Kai

For all of you guys wondering about Anguilla. The sky is overcast and the wind is from the southeast with occasional showers, we dont know what to expect but we hope for the best, as usual. We do know that if we are the target we can expect trouble on Wednesday night.
Good luck to all the other Islands in the track of Lenny.

Prepare for the Worse

Lt. Governor Antoine Solagnier says that everyone should prepare for the
worse with Hurricane Lenny approaching the island chain. The Department of
Public Works personnel are busy working throughout tonite night closing up
and securing public buildings.

Emergency Centers will be open and manned on Wednesday morning at 8am. The
shelters are as follows: the A.M. Edward's Medical Center in The Bottom;
Scouts Place in Windwardside; and the Community Center in Hell's Gate. A
shelter in the village of ••••. John's still has to be determined and the
public will be informed of this as soon as possible.

Solagnier stated that everything at the Juancho Yrausquin Airport has been
secured. The same also goes for the Fort Bay Harbour where all fishing,
dive and recreational boats have been taken out of the water.

A contingent of marines is scheduled to arrive on the island tonite by
military helicopter. The National Hurricane Committee met on Tuesday
afternoon to assess the threat of Hurricane Lenny to the island.

Torrential rainfall is expected and this can result in rock falls and
landslides. Residents are advised to exercise extreme caution when driving
on the public roads after the hurricane. Residents are also advised to
remain off the road if it is not necessary to be outdoors as emergency
crews will need free access to clear road blocks.

Roddy Heyliger
Communications Consultant - Caribbean Information Provider
Email: medprocomm@email.com
sabagis@hotmail.com

At about 4:30 the heavens opened up and we are since experiencing
torrential rains accompanied by thunder and some lightning. The power and
phone is still on in West End. Once the power goes you will get a brief
report from me as I use the last of my battery time.
I was at Nanny Cay marina where the docks are full with boats tied down
every which ways with spaghetti like lines. Folks have put out anchors in
case the floating docks decide to break up.
The drive to West End indicated flash flooding already in progress as
rivers ran down the guts and across the road.
I stopped in the store around 5pm and they still had plenty of batteries
and food. My neighbors are just now starting to prepare for the hurricane.
Many folks seem too tired to get ready for Lefty Lenny. I am exhausted and
still need to empty out the old jeep but I came inside to warm up, as I am
drenched.
LENNY REACHES 115 MPH ... BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON
... HEADING FOR THE ISLANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ...

@aol.com">aSail4U@aol.com

don't forget to buy your copy of the soon-to-be-released
book;
HURRICANES & HANGOVERS
(and other tall tales and loose lies from the coconut
telegraph...)
authored and autographed by Yours Truly

I have received concerned email from charter yacht guests planning to
visit our gorgeous piece of paradise in the very near future. I will try to
give you an approximation of what to plan for, based on the current
conditions at West End, Tortola, as of 10pm Tuesday, the 16th.
If your charter starts today or tomorrow and you aren't already here,
forget it. If you are already here, forget it. Relax and enjoy our fabulous
hurricane parties.
Wednesday-no flights unless a miracle happens. Continue to enjoy
hurricane parties and lend a hand where ever you can.
Thursday-doubtful/maybe/probably not that flights will be running unless
we are completely unscathed.
Friday-might have flights coming in, check this webpage for island
conditions before boarding.
Saturday-if Loose Lefty Lenny will just leave us alone, then we'll be
back in business and eager to please. Bring comfortable sail gloves as you
may have to untie umpteen lines and lift a few anchors to pry your charter
boat from the dock and/or a hurricane hole. Now is a good time to learn how
to properly coil rope neatly.
If you have never rigged up sails (main, roller jib, etc.) on a charter
sailboat from scratch, this will be a great opportunity to acquire these
skills first hand.
Unless the grocery stores completely blow away, we will probably have
interesting food available. However, much of our food is delivered by
freighter and they have probably diverted from their normal course to go
hide in their own hurricane holes. There may be a slight delay of a few days
before everything you could ever want arrives on our shelves. Be flexible.
Tortolians are basically a sturdy lot. I have been here through past
hurricanes, and after the storm was gone, folks rushed to clean up the
island, expedite utilities and prepare to go back to work showing off our
usual PEACE in paradise!
It's nearly 11pm Atlantic Standard Time, Tortola is currently a
continuous drizzle highlighted by frequent lightning flashes and long low
rumblings of thunder. We still have radio, power, phone, cellular and
Internet. I don't have cable or TV, so I've no idea if it is on or off.
There is virtually no wind at this time.
Lefty Lenny, why don't you take a benny and speed out to sea and leave us
be!

From @aol.com">aSail4U@aol.com

Don't forget to reserve your copy of the soon-to-be-released
book;
HURRICANES & HANGOVERS
(and other tall tales and loose lies from the coconut
telegraph...)
authored and autographed by Yours Truly

Savor a delightful story collection of fun and mayhem in the usually sunny but
whacky Caribbean!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(_~~~~~~~~~~~~~(_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I have received concerned email from charter yacht guests planning to
visit our gorgeous piece of paradise in the very near future. I will try to
give you an approximation of what to plan for, based on the current
conditions at West End, Tortola, as of 10pm Tuesday, the 16th.
If your charter starts today or tomorrow and you aren't already here,
forget it. If you are already here, forget it. Relax and enjoy our fabulous
hurricane parties.
Wednesday-no flights unless a miracle happens. Continue to enjoy
hurricane parties and lend a hand where ever you can.
Thursday-doubtful/maybe/probably not that flights will be running unless
we are completely unscathed.
Friday-might have flights coming in, check this webpage for island
conditions before boarding.
Saturday-if Loose Lefty Lenny will just leave us alone, then we'll be
back in business and eager to please. Bring comfortable sail gloves as you
may have to untie umpteen lines and lift a few anchors to pry your charter
boat from the dock and/or a hurricane hole. Now is a good time to learn how
to properly coil rope neatly.
If you have never rigged up sails (main, roller jib, etc.) on a charter
sailboat from scratch, this will be a great opportunity to acquire these
skills first hand.
Unless the grocery stores completely blow away, we will probably have
interesting food available. However, much of our food is delivered by
freighter and they have probably diverted from their normal course to go
hide in their own hurricane holes. There may be a slight delay of a few days
before everything you could ever want arrives on our shelves. Be flexible.
Tortolians are basically a sturdy lot. I have been here through past
hurricanes, and after the storm was gone, folks rushed to clean up the
island, expedite utilities and prepare to go back to work showing off our
usual PEACE in paradise!
It's nearly 11pm Atlantic Standard Time, Tortola is currently a
continuous drizzle highlighted by frequent lightning flashes and long low
rumblings of thunder. We still have radio, power, phone, cellular and
Internet. I don't have cable or TV, so I've no idea if it is on or off.
There is virtually no wind at this time.
Lefty Lenny, why don't you take a benny and speed out to sea and leave us
be!

From @aol.com">aSail4U@aol.com

Don't forget to reserve your copy of the soon-to-be-released
book;
HURRICANES & HANGOVERS
(and other tall tales and loose lies from the coconut
telegraph...)
authored and autographed by Yours Truly

Savor a delightful story collection of fun and mayhem in the usually sunny but
whacky Caribbean!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(_~~~~~~~~~~~~~(_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~