March 30 2000.

OPEN LETTER TO THE ARMENIAN PEOPLE.

BARONESS CAROLINE COX.

I write this letter as someone who has a great love and admiration for the Armenian people. It is this love which compels me to raise
the alarm.

A decade after regaining its independence, Armenia might be in such great danger that its independence and very existence may be threatened. The hope created by negotiations with Azerbaijan currently being pursued by the Armenian government is deceptive. The Islamist forces in the Caucasus are determined decisively to 'resolve' the 'problems' of Armenia and Karabakh by force. Nobody, least of all Azerbaijan and Turkey, will stand in their way. Given the enormity of this threat and the complexities of the international political and economic interests, it is imperative that the Armenian Diaspora rally urgently to the help of
the homeland before it is too late. It is far more important, and a far greater challenge, to act now to prevent another genocide from being unleashed than later to mourn yet another holocaust. I therefore write this letter with a heavy heart and in a spirit of profound humility.

I have visited your homelands of Armenia and Artsakh 46 times. Many of those visits were during the bitter war with Azerbaijan, when I
witnessed at first hand the phenomenal courage and dignity of your people. You were fighting against odds which seemed impossible, to save your families, your lands, your freedom and your unique cultural heritage. You won that war and the brave Armenians of Artsakh have since been valiantly rebuilding their shattered lives and land.

But now you are in danger of losing the peace - and your independence. If you do not act quickly you will lose not only the sacred land of Artsakh but Armenia too, and there will be another
genocide to commemorate.

Two threats endanger your nation.

The first is internal and suicidal. The present leadership of Armenia is under tremendous pressure to strike a deal and seems to be succumbing to the point of betraying all those who shed their blood or who sacrificed their loved ones for Artsakh. Are you going to allow your political leaders to give away the lands of Southern Armenia and cut Armenia off from Iran? Are you going to give away the buffer zone, which has protected your people throughout these years of cease-fire? Are you going to allow Artsakh to be returned to a precarious and vulnerable status, with nothing achieved for all the blood that has been shed? The last state will be worse than the first and the war will have been lost.

The second threat is external, predictable and imminent. Azerbaijan is escalating its preparations for renewed military offensives, in
partnership with the Islamist fighters in Chechnya. So now, while you are weakened by leaders who only seem to be interested in holding on to their own power, you face a bigger military threat than ever before. Now you are confronted not just by Azerbaijan aided by Turkey. You are also threatened by militant Islamists who have declared their intention to unite with Azerbaijan to conquer the whole of the Caucasus - and Karabakh is one of their first targets.

In a recent interview given with Elkhan Shahinoglu and Agasi Hun of the Baku Azadlyg newspaper, Ali Ulukhayev, Chechnya's 'ambassador'
to Baku, declares: "Chechens will not be satisfied with the liberation of their own territory." Only a regional 'solution' is a
viable option for the Chechen Islamist leadership. He highlights in particular the urgent imperative to deal with Karabakh, as "Nagorny Karabakh always was an inalienable part of Azerbaijan."

Dear Armenian friends, you waited so long to regain an independent Armenia. Now you are about to lose it, after so short a time. You suffered one genocide in the 20th century. Are you going to allow another genocide so soon in the 21st century - this time, a self-inflicted genocide? One-and-a-half million Armenians were lost in the terrible year of 1915. But in recent times, many more than one-and-a-half million Armenians have left Armenia. Who will remain to rebuild and to defend your homeland?

While you still have your freedom in Armenia and Artsakh, please use it to restore democracy and justice; and to prepare to defend yourselves against those who even now are talking of conquering you. Those of you who live in freedom in the Diaspora, please redouble your efforts to build international support for your beleaguered homeland. And please do not use all your resources on efforts to achieve recognition of the past, historic genocide (important as that is) but mobilise to prevent a new genocide.

If the present course of events is not stopped, your leadership in Yerevan will have fatally weakened and betrayed your country; you
will be unable to defend yourselves against those who proclaim their determination to conquer you and to achieve an Islamist Caucasus; and all those who gave their lives for your historic land, will have died in vain.

My aim is not to sow despair. On the contrary, I firmly believe that an independent Armenia and Artsakh are destined to flourish
and to emerge as bulwarks of stability and prosperity in the Caucasus. However, this destiny will not be achieved, and the worst will happen, if the current political dynamics are allowed to
continue. It is imperative that the entire Armenian people, both in your homeland and in the Diaspora, are mobilised to put the resurrection of Armenia and Artsakh back on track. The role of the Diaspora in the West is of crucial significance in this endeavour, for a determined intervention by the governments of the United
States and the key European powers might deter the Islamists and their supporters from unleashing their intended onslaught. Moreover, a thorough re-examination of the oil exploration and pipeline prospects by Western governments and
companies will deprive the Islamists in the Caucasus of much of their funds and their main source of political influence. These are crucial undertakings which the leadership in Yerevan and
Stepanakert cannot possibly accomplish on their own. You and your friends must mobilise and work together before it is too late for the people we all love and admire in Armenia and in Artsakh.

Please forgive me if I have offended you, but I can stay silent no longer. During the war, in January 1992, I could not sleep at night in England, thinking of your people in Artsakh suffering and dying without medicines. I had to act, to do what I could to help to save the lives of your people. Now I am wakeful with dread of
another war and another genocide. The only action I can take now is to speak, to warn you and to urge you to act before it is too late.

So, I have spoken. I can do no more.

With all my heart, and with my love, I pray for you,
Caroline Cox,
House of Lords,
Westminster,
London SW1A OPW,
England.

Telephone: 44-181-204-7336; Fax: 44-181-204-5661