2 Saul,

Oil was important in 1998.

But in 1999 and in the forthcoming 2000 more relevant reasons are Russian elections, first to DUMB, oops, to DUMA, and then - presidential one next year.

You may remember that Russian previos war in Chechnya was also just before elections. Wars in Russia have become cyclical....

Drake,

With all due respect,
advising a referendum in a Russian republic is very close to an advise
to a death camp surviver 'why didn't you call your lawyer'.

ch.f:
I tried in explore, but nothing happend. That is o.k. not sure if I want to spend time to figure this out.


saul:
after reading the article couple things pop up:
1. There is no prove of russian security services involvement. It is just a suggestion by chechen president.

2. this article clearly states that many military groups do not want to establish law and order therefore, it seems that unless they are also part of russian security services than they benefit out of this situation the most.

3. the article also indicates that there is no control or working goverment in this part of the russian federation, so any sort of political solution to the idependence is quite empty. There is no way for ordinary people there (chechen, russians, cossaks, dagestany and so forth) to make their desires known.

4. Also, all this independency movement makes me cautions because people who started it were very high in old communist regim.

thanks

Ch. f.

I am not sure that are you saing.
It is o.k. for someone from other country to come in to independent country and demand part of it be an independent?

Of cause, there would be some difficulty, but USSR did consisted of 15 republics, now it is 15 different countries.

If you are saying that people in majority are not ready for that, than may be some politician should not started it all.

Thanks